Politics
I lived in China for a couple of years and read a book or two about Chinese history. Still, I know nothing.
Anyway, Here is my take:
Historically, Taiwan belongs to China. The reason we have the current conundrum is that, at the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the Guomindang fled to Taiwan and the Communist Party established it's Goverment in Beijing.
Mainland China would have long since reunited with Taiwan if it hadn't been for US intervention.
In my eyes, this dosen't mean that the RPC has a right to govern Taiwan: They should acknowledge that Taiwan has a working democracy and that the Taiwaniese peoples votes should be respected.
Perhaps there could be a (very) long-term solution where Taiwanese vote for a government that seeks to reunite with China -- if the Chinese government was itsself a democracy.
I talked to many Chinese people about this, and practically everyone agrees that a: Taiwan is "not a country", and ultimately reunification is inevitable. The Chinese leadership wants it to happen and it is more a question of timing. Certainly, China has the military means to take over Taiwan by force. b: the PRC can not introduce democracy because it would lead to chaos ("too many people")
It doesn't look like a peaceful transition will happen, but there are some interesing recent developments:
Donald Trump is president again, and he is stupid and naive. I do not trust, that he is able to find reasonable solutions to complex problems. But he can stir up the pot and make everybody equally upset.
Here is the status quo:
Trump is threatening to impose taxes on Chinese goods. This is a bad idea, but the Chinese believe that he is unpredictable and may be serious about it. This gives him leverage.
Trump also had made a promise that he would immediately end the war in the Ukraine, if he was elected. He never specified how exactly he would do this, but in a recent tweet he threatened Putin with sanctions if he didn't end the war.
I see a unique chance for Trump to get together with Xi and "make a deal". Instead of taxes there would be a glorious economic partnership between the US and China -- as soon as China stops supporting Russia. For China it'd be extremely easy go give Putin the pressure he needs to pull out of the Ukraine.
"Right", Xi will say, "but you will not stand in my way when we reunite with Taiwan."
I guess Trump does see that Taiwan rejoining China might disrupt the semiconductor industry, but he has no stake in any historic sensitivities and he clearly couldn't give a damn about democracy. He might just say "ok". In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Xi had just been holding off on the Taiwan issue because he was waiting for the opportunity to play Trump.
And Europe will just stand by and watch.